New Silk Road Ruins US Military Plans to Impose Blockade of China

Source : http://sputniknews.com

Beijing's One Belt, One Road initiative, a viable alternative to China's vulnerable sea routes through the South China Sea, is aimed at bolstering China's economy and preventing the US from imposing a distant blockade of the country, Stratfor notes.

China's Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road initiative is not just a "sum of infrastructural projects," but rather a carefully thought-out strategy aimed at pursuing China's geopolitical objectives in Eurasia, Stratfor's analysts pointed out.

Beijing's "Belt and Road" will be in fact a sum of six transport corridors across Eurasia, comprising of both land and maritime components, the analysts elaborated.

"The strategy behind the Belt and Road Initiative is to diversify transit lines, thereby mitigating China's vulnerability to external economic disruption and reinvigorating China's slowing economy. Ideally, China would like to link its inland cities to global markets with a diversified network of transit routes and energy pipelines, many of which would take inland routes and serve as alternatives to existing sea-lanes," the Stratfor report stated.

Since China's economy is heavily reliant on foreign trade and energy supplies through the country's "vulnerable" sea routes, it would be "relatively easy" for a potential adversary to disrupt China's trade and block the country.

"US war planners have certainly not ignored China's geographic vulnerability… In the case of a war between the United States and China, many US strategists favor imposing a distant blockade of Chinese waters," the analysts pointed out.

Thus far, by launching the Belt and Road initiative Beijing is seeking to mitigate such a risk, constructing a network of transit routes across Eurasia in order to avoid a "single point of failure."

Beijing is planning to improve existing transportation networks, build new ones and construct new energy pipelines and transport hubs. Remarkably, China has already built a number of such hubs in Eurasia and now it will have to simply link existing segments of infrastructure into a comprehensive network.

"The Belt and Road investments will also serve to build political support for China. Many countries along the proposed transportation corridors face huge budget shortfalls in the area of infrastructure development, together totaling trillions of dollars between 2010 and 2020," the Stratfor report read, adding that "with its large financial resources, China is well poised to fill some of these gaps."

The analysts underscored that China may face certain security and political obstacles while accomplishing its ambitious project. For instance, Beijing will have to build a number of transport routes through undeveloped and troublesome regions. Furthermore, China is also facing a substantial threat posed by Xinjiang separatist insurgents, the analysts noted.

However, if China succeeds in implementing the Belt and Road project it will obtain several alternatives to its vulnerable South China Sea-lanes that "would greatly complicate potential US plans to impose a distant blockade" in an instance of war.

"Inland transit routes would naturally be insulated against naval interdiction, and the proliferation of short maritime transit legs would force the US Navy to spread its assets over a large expanse rather than concentrate on a small number of chokepoints. In peacetime, these options would enhance China's political leverage by preventing any individual country from threatening to disrupt China's economic lifelines," Stratfor's analysts concluded.

Hypersonic Missile Arm Race: US Walking a Tightrope in East Asian Region

Source : http://sputniknews.com

 

Washington is walking a tightrope in the East Asian region: the Sino-American hypersonic missile arm race may prompt a rapid escalation of tensions between the two sides with certain destabilizing effects, military expert Eleni G. Ekmektsioglou notes.

The hypersonic missile arm race between the United States and China may prompt a rapid military escalation in the East Asian region, dragging it into the abyss of instability, PhD Researcher and Research Assistant at the American University School of International Service Eleni G. Ekmektsioglou noted.

According to the scholar "military thinking so far has been dominated by the use of brute force… instead of coercive force that leaves the final choice to the opponent."

"The latter [coercive force] would be more expedient in a regional conflict scenario where the United States faces a nuclear force while at the same time the objective at stake does not justify an all-out war effort," she elaborated.

The United States has been pursuing its conventional prompt global strike (CPGS) high precision technology, aimed at "striking a target anywhere in the world within one hour's time," since late 1970s. The idea has caught its second wind after 9/11, during the Bush administration.

Although CPGS had been initially meant for counterterrorism operations, very soon the concept has taken on a new meaning of a prompt "counternuclear" strike. "Counternuclear is broader and more comprehensive than counterforce since it targets nuclear warheads, C4ISR systems as well as production and storage facilities," the scholar elaborated.

The Obama administration praises the development of the CPGS program. However, Washington's course has triggered growing concerns among Chinese policy-makers. Beijing fears that the program is aimed at containing China.

"Specifically, Chinese experts talk about the scenario of China being subject to American coercion, a concern that is mainly due to US nuclear superiority, which — married to BMD [Ballistic Missile Defense] and a conventional pre-emptive strike enabled by CPGS — puts at risk the Chinese retaliatory capability," Ms. Ekmektsioglou emphasized.

In order to equalize opportunities, China kicked off its own hypersonic missile projects. The Chinese tests carried out in January and August 2014 had demonstrated clearly that Beijing entered the competition.

"Over the last several years, talk has heated up over Beijing's DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), with a maneuverable warhead and range at around 1,500 km, taking many U.S. experts and high echelon officers by surprise," the scholar stressed.

The CPGS technology is considered a game changer in the traditional warfare. Indeed, its accuracy and speed that allows to penetrate an adversary's BMD systems may significantly bolster both US' and China's military capabilities. But on the other hand, it leads to "two-sided escalation situations."

A surprise attack and a tough response to it leave "no room for signaling and diplomacy," and, unfortunately, the "escalation control" is just a "wishful thinking" in the troublesome East Asian regional environment.

"Hypersonic weapons add to the complexity and elusiveness of the escalatory dynamics and this is something both sides will need to plan for," the scholar emphasized.

Chinas PLA could use neutron bomb in event of US invasion: Duowei

Source : http://www.wantchinatimes.com

Unconfirmed reports on various websites in China claim the People's Liberation Army possesses a neutron bomb and would use it as a last resort against a potential US invasion, Duowei News, a news outlet run by overseas Chinese reported on June 26.

One online article said a neutron bomb could take out a US convoy of M1A2 Abrams main battle tank and M2A3 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, killing all military personnel without doing significant damage to the vehicles themselves.

A neutron bomb sends a massive wave of neutron and gamma radiation that can penetrate armor or several feet of earth and is extremely destructive to living tissue. The bomb was developed to counter a potential Soviet invasion of Western Europe during the Cold War.

General Zhang Aiping, former deputy chief of PLA's general staff department, wrote in a poem for the Communist party mouthpiece People's Daily on Sept. 21, 1977, only months after the US tested its first neutron bomb, that it would not be difficult for China to develop the weapon. On Dec. 19, 1984. China tested its first neutron bomb two years after Zhang was appointed defense minister.

China successfully completed a neutron bomb test on Sept. 29, 1988.

Venezuela receives first batch of military vehicles from China

Source : http://www.wantchinatimes.com

China turned over a first batch of 557 military vehicles to Venezuela at a ceremony in Palo Negro in the state of Aragua on June 26, according to Military Parade, a Russian-language defense website based in Moscow.

The consignment included VN-4 4x4 wheeled armored vehicles, ABV-1 assault breacher vehicles and WTC-1 water cannon vehicles. There were also 200 of the NG2629 6x6 vehicle produced by China North Industries Corporation.

Caracas is buying the new vehicles to improve the Venezuelan National Guard's mobility and combat capability. Earlier this year, 16 national guard vehicles were destroyed in a protest that turned violent.

Venezuela has planned to buy a total of 2,106 military vehicles for its ground forces between 2009 and 2019, chiefly from China. A second batch is scheduled for delivery in September with a third batch expected later this year or early next year.

You Can't Win Them All: This Time US May Lose New Arms Race

Source : http://sputniknews.com

The United States may lose a new arms race in today's multi-polar world, prominent US writer and publicist David A. Andelman says, stating that Washington is currently facing new multinational, multidimensional threats.

According to prominent American writer and publicist David A. Andelman, Washington is facing a new arms race, potentially far more threatening than during the Cold War.

"All that is history. But not the arms race. It's still going on, though in a vastly different, expanded and far more expensive format that's potentially even more threatening. And this time we may be losing," the writer stressed.

Mr. Andelman pointed out that this year Moscow demonstrated "three new, utterly modern armored vehicles" during its May 9 Victory Day parade. Russia is seeking to replenish its military arsenal that now includes new MIG-35 multirole fighters, advanced Pantsir mobile artillery weapon systems, Bora-class guided missile hovercrafts and stealth submarines.

"In all, we are looking at a potent 845,000 troops, 22,550 tanks, and 1,399 combat aircraft, with 70% of Russian equipment defined as "modern" in the next five years," the publicist underscored.

Meanwhile, China is modernizing its People's Liberation Army at a steady pace. China's defense expenditures now amount "for more than a third" of all military spending in Asia. Furthermore, Beijing has already launched its first aircraft carrier Liaoning, a renovated 302-meter former Soviet vessel, and is currently building a second one, which is expected to be far more advanced.

According to the writer, China's military spending last year amounted to $216 billion, while Russia had spent only $84.5 billion. In contrast, the United States annually pours more than $600 billion in its military sector.

However, Mr. Andelman remarked that "such numbers don't tell the full story."

"Today's new arms race is not just with Russia, but an integral part of today's multipolar world. And certainly it's more expensive, in part because of the multinational, multidimensional threats…  At the same time, we must not be distracted from our greatest, potentially existential, threats: terrorism and its special warfare requirements, and the cyber arms race," he stressed, insisting that China and Russia are matching the US here "step for step."

The author believes that Washington should spend more if it wants to come out on top, slamming the Senate for voting down an essential appropriations bill, after it approved a $600 billion defense budget.

At the same time Mr. Andelman pointed to the Pentagon's decision to supply heavy offensive weapons to the Baltic states and Poland, "all NATO members directly on Russia's frontiers."

"None of this should suggest that any armed conflict is imminent. But it's quite clear that on multiple fronts this time, we're in a new arms race, with no clear winner," he highlighted.

Pentagon Says It Needs $270 Billion to Upgrade Nuclear Arsenal

Source : http://military.com

The United States will need to spend as much as $18 billion per year for 15 years starting in 2021 to keep the nation's nuclear stockpile and the weapons and vehicles designed to deliver these weapons viable, Pentagon leaders told lawmakers.

"We've developed a plan to transition our aging system. Carrying out this plan will be an expensive proposition. It is projected to cost DoD an average of $18 billion a year from 2021 through 2035," Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work told members of the House Armed Services Committee at Thursday's hearing on nuclear deterrence.

"The only existential threat to our nation is a nuclear attack. Nuclear weapons remain the most important mission we have," he added.

Work explained that keeping the country's nuclear enterprise modernized is especially important in light of the advancements made by Russia and China.

The U.S. Navy and Air Force have already seen problems creep up with operations and morale within their nuclear forces. Both services faced cheating scandals in recent years. The Air Force's two top leaders were fired in 2008 after former Defense Secretary Robert Gates faulted the leaders for losing focus on the nuclear mission.

The Pentagon is already pursuing several acquisition efforts to boost the nuclear triad, but many have high price tags and the Air Force and Navy are trying to figure out how to pay for them under restricted budgets.

The Air Force plans to announce a contract this summer for its next-generation bomber program, called the Long Range Strike Bomber, or LRS-B. The Navy is working with Congress to secure funding for its Ohio Replacement Program, a new-generation of nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines slated to arrive by the early 2030s.

The new LRS-B planes are expected to cost about $550 million each and the Navy hopes it can keep the cost of its Ohio Replacement submarines for under $5 billion per boat. Many defense analysts have called those estimates ambitious after the services have had a record for going over budget in recent years on other big budget acquisition programs like the Joint Strike Fighter and the Ford-class aircraft carrier.

Congress has identified a new National Sea Based Deterrence fund designed to identify money to pay for the Ohio Replacement submarines, however most of the needed money for the fund has yet to be identified.

Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn., said Congress was working vigorously to identify money for the fund.

"We've created a mechanism within the budget process. We're ready and we're moving forward and we hope that the administration is going to help us solve this problem," he said.

Work said funding the Ohio Replacement Program was a critical priority, explaining that if it is paid for out of the existing shipbuilding budget – the funds needed will adversely impact other priority programs.

"This is our number one mission. We are going to pay for it (Ohio Replacement) no matter what. We appreciate the theory of the case behind this fund. There will have to be something like this to help us through," Work said.

Russian Saber Rattling

Work stressed that Russian, Chinese and North Korean nuclear weapons development continues to engender a dangerous and high-threat global environment.

"While we seek a world without nuclear weapons, we face the harsh reality that Russia and China are rapidly modernizing their already capable nuclear arsenals - and North Korea intends to develop nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them against the United States. A strong nuclear deterrent force will remain critical to our national security," Work said.

Citing the fact that senior Russian officials continue to make irresponsible statements about their nuclear forces, Work said the U.S. and NATO were not intimidated but rather strengthened in solidarity.

"As Secretary Carter has recently said, Moscow's nuclear saber-rattling raises questions about Russia's commitment to strategic stability -- and the profound respect that world leaders in the nuclear age have shown in the brandishing of these weapons," he added.

The Russian military is currently modernizing its arsenal of ICBMs and advancing its nuclear weapons' technologies, Work said.

Work stressed that Russia continues to violate the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF agreement, reached between President Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in the late 1980s. The treaty is designed to eliminate nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with intermediate ranges identified as 500 to 5,500 kilometers.

"Russia continues to violate the INF treaty and our goal is to return them to compliance to preserve the viability of that treaty. We will not allow them to gain significant military advantage through INF violations," Work added.

Chinese nuclear modernization is also on the Pentagon's radar, Work explained. The Chinese are placing multiple warheads on their ICBMs, expanding their mobile ICBM force and continuing to pursue sea-based nuclear weapons.

"However, we assess that this modernization program (China) is designed to ensure they have a second strike capability and not to seek a quantitative nuclear parity with the United States or Russia," Work said.

When addressing the funding challenges expected to make the modernization of nuclear weapons a reality for DoD, Work said the stepped up effort would require about 7 percent of the Pentagon's annual budget.

"The choice right now is modernizing or losing deterrence. Without additional funding, sustaining this level of spending will require very, very hard choices that will impact the other parts of our defense portfolio," he explained.

HASC Chairman Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, said spending 7 percent of the Pentagon budget on its top security priority seems reasonable and appropriate.

"It seems to me that it is not unreasonable to say that it's in the ballpark," he said.

New ballistic missiles to be introduced for Chinese submarines

Source : http://www.wantchinatimes.com

The People's Liberation Army Navy has been developing new missiles for its newly developed submarines, according to Moscow-based Military Parade in a June 25 report.

The PLA Navy currently uses Type 093 Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarines and Type 039A Yuan-class and Type 039 Song-class diesel-electric submarines. These vessels are all currently equipped with YJ-82 cruise missiles. The YJ-82 is set to be replaced by the SS-N-13, however, which has an operational range of 222 kilometers, according to the website.

China is currently carrying out tests on its Type 096 Tang-class ballistic missile submarine. JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missiles are also being tested and will likely replace the JL-2 missile. Equipped with a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle, the JL-2 can carry between three and four warheads. It is estimated to have an attack range of 7,400 kilometers. When launched from the waters east of Hawaii, the entire United States is in range of the JL-2 missile.

With only a single JL-2, China would be capable of striking between three and four US targets. China is also developing a new third-generation attack-submarine, the Type 095, the website reported. The PLA Navy will use this new submarine to attack enemy surface combat vessels 100 nautical miles away, the website said

The sale of Su-35 fighters to China about to be signed: report

Source : http://www.wantchinatimes.com

Yuri Slyusar, chairman of United Aircraft Corp, a civilian and military aircraft manufacturer based in Moscow, said his company is about to sign the final contract with China concerning the sale of Su-35 fighters. Slyusar was speaking to reporters at the Paris Air Show and was cited by American defense analyst Zachary Keck n an article written for the Washington-based National Interest magazine.

Moscow and Beijing have been negotiating the contract since President Vladimir Putin approved the sale of the Su-35 to China back in 2012. No final conclusion was reached however out of fears by Russia that China will reverse engineer the 4++ generation multi-role fighter jet to produce a domestically built version like it did with the Su-27 three decades ago.

Moscow has also been concerned about Beijing's desire to buy only a small number of the fighters. With just 24 Su-35s, China could reverse engineer the fighter's NIIP Irbis-E passive electronically scanned array radar and 117S engine. This would mean an end to possible future export deals and a loss of both technology and cash for Moscow. With that in mind, Russia demanded China purchase at least 48 fighters but later softened its position due to the escalation of tensions with the West over Ukraine. As of November 2014, sources with the Russian defense industry said China only needed to purchase 24 aircraft.

The sources also said at the time that the contract would likely to be signed between late 2014 and early 2015. For unknown reasons, however, the contract was delayed again, according to Keck.

The Su-35 is seen as a fighter that can greatly extend the operational range of the People's Liberation Army Air Force. The aircraft will enhance China's ability to enforce its claims over the South China Sea.

China aims to challenge US air dominance: Pentagon

Source : http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com

China is mounting a serious effort to challengeUS military superiority in air and space, forcing the Pentagon to seek new technologies and systems to stay ahead of its rapidly developing rival, Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work said on June 22. 

The Pentagon's chief operating officer, speaking to a group of military and civilian aerospace experts, said China was "quickly closing the technological gaps," developing radar-evading aircraft, advanced reconnaissance planes, sophisticated missiles and top-notch electronic warfare equipment. 

While hoping for a constructive relationship with China, the Pentagon "cannot overlook the competitive aspects of our relationship, especially in the realm of military capabilities, an area in which China continues to improve at a very impressive rate," he said. 

China's state-run news agency Xinhua late on Monday cited Xu Qiliang, a vice chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission, as saying China must innovate even more. 

"Our military's equipment construction is shifting from catch-up research to independent innovations," Xu said. 

Work made his remarks to the inaugural conference of the China Aerospace Studies Initiative, a partnership of the US Air Force and the RAND Corporation think tank. The initiative aims to boost US research on China's aerospace ambitions. 

The conference came as hundreds of Chinese officials were in Washington for the three-day US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, wide-ranging talks that look at areas of mutual cooperation and address points of friction. 

Asked about the timing of the military conference, Work said US and Chinese leaders both see the bilateral relationship as one in which there are "measures of cooperation and measures of competition." 

"We're hoping over time that the cooperative aspects outweigh competitive aspects," Work added. "As the Department of Defense, we're the hedge force. ... We say, 'Look, here are capabilities that we see that the Chinese are developing and it's important for us to be able to counter those." 

Work, citing a Harvard study on rising powers confronting established powers, told the conference that interactions between the two often result in war. As a result, the Defense Department must "hedge against this international competition turning more heated." 

The United States has generally felt the best hedge is a strong nuclear and conventional deterrence capable of overmatching any rival, he added. 

Work said the United States has relied on technological superiority for the past 25 years, but now "the margin of technological superiority upon which we have become so accustomed ... is steadily eroding." 

To adjust, he said, the Pentagon is working to develop new technologies to maintain its edge and lower the cost of responding to attacks. Directed energy weapons, for example, might be able to shoot down missiles that cost a hundred times the price of a jolt of energy.  

US, China Agree to Hold Joint Military Drills

Source : http://www.almanar.com

The US and China have signed a rare agreement to strengthen military relationship as Beijing said that progress can only be made if Washington respects China’s South China Sea ambitions.

The vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, Fan Changlong, and the US Defense Secretary, Ashton Carter, signed the dialogue understanding at the National Defense University in Washington, DC.

Washington and Beijing said they will look to collaborate on issues such as disaster response, peacekeeping, and counter-piracy, whilst entertaining the possibility of the two countries conducting drills together in the future.