New Silk Road Ruins US Military Plans to Impose Blockade of China

Source : http://sputniknews.com

Beijing's One Belt, One Road initiative, a viable alternative to China's vulnerable sea routes through the South China Sea, is aimed at bolstering China's economy and preventing the US from imposing a distant blockade of the country, Stratfor notes.

China's Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road initiative is not just a "sum of infrastructural projects," but rather a carefully thought-out strategy aimed at pursuing China's geopolitical objectives in Eurasia, Stratfor's analysts pointed out.

Beijing's "Belt and Road" will be in fact a sum of six transport corridors across Eurasia, comprising of both land and maritime components, the analysts elaborated.

"The strategy behind the Belt and Road Initiative is to diversify transit lines, thereby mitigating China's vulnerability to external economic disruption and reinvigorating China's slowing economy. Ideally, China would like to link its inland cities to global markets with a diversified network of transit routes and energy pipelines, many of which would take inland routes and serve as alternatives to existing sea-lanes," the Stratfor report stated.

Since China's economy is heavily reliant on foreign trade and energy supplies through the country's "vulnerable" sea routes, it would be "relatively easy" for a potential adversary to disrupt China's trade and block the country.

"US war planners have certainly not ignored China's geographic vulnerability… In the case of a war between the United States and China, many US strategists favor imposing a distant blockade of Chinese waters," the analysts pointed out.

Thus far, by launching the Belt and Road initiative Beijing is seeking to mitigate such a risk, constructing a network of transit routes across Eurasia in order to avoid a "single point of failure."

Beijing is planning to improve existing transportation networks, build new ones and construct new energy pipelines and transport hubs. Remarkably, China has already built a number of such hubs in Eurasia and now it will have to simply link existing segments of infrastructure into a comprehensive network.

"The Belt and Road investments will also serve to build political support for China. Many countries along the proposed transportation corridors face huge budget shortfalls in the area of infrastructure development, together totaling trillions of dollars between 2010 and 2020," the Stratfor report read, adding that "with its large financial resources, China is well poised to fill some of these gaps."

The analysts underscored that China may face certain security and political obstacles while accomplishing its ambitious project. For instance, Beijing will have to build a number of transport routes through undeveloped and troublesome regions. Furthermore, China is also facing a substantial threat posed by Xinjiang separatist insurgents, the analysts noted.

However, if China succeeds in implementing the Belt and Road project it will obtain several alternatives to its vulnerable South China Sea-lanes that "would greatly complicate potential US plans to impose a distant blockade" in an instance of war.

"Inland transit routes would naturally be insulated against naval interdiction, and the proliferation of short maritime transit legs would force the US Navy to spread its assets over a large expanse rather than concentrate on a small number of chokepoints. In peacetime, these options would enhance China's political leverage by preventing any individual country from threatening to disrupt China's economic lifelines," Stratfor's analysts concluded.

Hypersonic Missile Arm Race: US Walking a Tightrope in East Asian Region

Source : http://sputniknews.com

 

Washington is walking a tightrope in the East Asian region: the Sino-American hypersonic missile arm race may prompt a rapid escalation of tensions between the two sides with certain destabilizing effects, military expert Eleni G. Ekmektsioglou notes.

The hypersonic missile arm race between the United States and China may prompt a rapid military escalation in the East Asian region, dragging it into the abyss of instability, PhD Researcher and Research Assistant at the American University School of International Service Eleni G. Ekmektsioglou noted.

According to the scholar "military thinking so far has been dominated by the use of brute force… instead of coercive force that leaves the final choice to the opponent."

"The latter [coercive force] would be more expedient in a regional conflict scenario where the United States faces a nuclear force while at the same time the objective at stake does not justify an all-out war effort," she elaborated.

The United States has been pursuing its conventional prompt global strike (CPGS) high precision technology, aimed at "striking a target anywhere in the world within one hour's time," since late 1970s. The idea has caught its second wind after 9/11, during the Bush administration.

Although CPGS had been initially meant for counterterrorism operations, very soon the concept has taken on a new meaning of a prompt "counternuclear" strike. "Counternuclear is broader and more comprehensive than counterforce since it targets nuclear warheads, C4ISR systems as well as production and storage facilities," the scholar elaborated.

The Obama administration praises the development of the CPGS program. However, Washington's course has triggered growing concerns among Chinese policy-makers. Beijing fears that the program is aimed at containing China.

"Specifically, Chinese experts talk about the scenario of China being subject to American coercion, a concern that is mainly due to US nuclear superiority, which — married to BMD [Ballistic Missile Defense] and a conventional pre-emptive strike enabled by CPGS — puts at risk the Chinese retaliatory capability," Ms. Ekmektsioglou emphasized.

In order to equalize opportunities, China kicked off its own hypersonic missile projects. The Chinese tests carried out in January and August 2014 had demonstrated clearly that Beijing entered the competition.

"Over the last several years, talk has heated up over Beijing's DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), with a maneuverable warhead and range at around 1,500 km, taking many U.S. experts and high echelon officers by surprise," the scholar stressed.

The CPGS technology is considered a game changer in the traditional warfare. Indeed, its accuracy and speed that allows to penetrate an adversary's BMD systems may significantly bolster both US' and China's military capabilities. But on the other hand, it leads to "two-sided escalation situations."

A surprise attack and a tough response to it leave "no room for signaling and diplomacy," and, unfortunately, the "escalation control" is just a "wishful thinking" in the troublesome East Asian regional environment.

"Hypersonic weapons add to the complexity and elusiveness of the escalatory dynamics and this is something both sides will need to plan for," the scholar emphasized.